Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Fall of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A key narrative of the EPL this campaign concerns the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and how sides are netting increasingly from set-pieces instead.
Comparing scoring methods to the first 11 games the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 fewer overall.
Considering overall statistics, shot attempts sides are producing reveal a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than this time last season.
And despite the notable jump in set-piece goals, records show just two more shots created from them outside of spot-kicks, indicating the proficiency sides have been at discovering methods to net from set-pieces.
Goal Averages Show a Story
The 301 goals scored in the first 110 fixtures so far works out at 2.74 goals per fixture, if maintained for the entire campaign would be the lowest for since 2020-21, since 2020-21 (2.69 per game).
But just 196 scores scored in open-play translates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the lowest for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76).
That campaign also marks the sole English top-flight campaign to witness goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).
What Clubs Are Most Responsible?
When it comes to goals scored from open-play, Wolves have recorded the most significant decrease, netting just four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than this point the previous campaign.
Apart from Wolverhampton, the Premier League's decline in open play goals is very much a London thing, with five of the capital's seven sides recording five or more goals fewer from open-play than the prior season.
In fairness, this is primarily due to them scoring many goals at the beginning of last season as opposed to them really struggling to convert in open-play the current term.
Meanwhile Man City have recorded the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 scores to date originating in open play.
Set-Play Proficiency
We've compared newly promoted sides with those that were relegated they took the place of. Play-off champions Sunderland have recorded three more goals in open-play than Southampton managed in their opening 11 matches en route to demotion last season.
Regarding goals scored from dead-ball situations (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have experienced the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the five fewer goals that they've netted in open play with identical figures from set-pieces.
Manchester United have recorded two times more goals from set-pieces as they achieved in matchday 11 last season ahead of their coach assumed control, while the Black Cats again have been better at netting than the similar-colored team that went down.
Man City don't seem to have got the message about netting additional goals from set-plays, because they've recorded a reduction of three than last season, as have Nottingham Forest, although that might be down to the altered approach they're working to install.
League-Wide Trends
Six sides – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – represent the current campaign's leading trend-followers by scoring fewer scores from open play and increased from set-plays, while Manchester City represent the sole team to buck the trend up to now by performing the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to watch if clubs carry on to place such emphasis on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and begin netting increased totals in open-play too.
