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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.