Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The mean count of everyday murders per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new official statistics. However, public safety specialists have advised that homicide figures could fail to point to improved countrywide stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This information was provided by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen in these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that the previous month the least amount of murders were registered for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key pillars of the President's security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that relying on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true given the increase in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it may hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with high bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to show their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst said.